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Opening 2024-25 Maltese Premier League Season

96 games

Final

Champion

Floriana

35 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Floriana

16.81 points above expected

35 points · 18.19 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Gzira United

10.24 points below expected

22 points · 32.24 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Birkirkara 11 9 1 1 28 19 8 +11 18.72 +9.28
2 Floriana 11 6 5 0 23 21 8 +13 20.88 +2.12
3 Sliema Wanderers 11 6 4 1 22 15 5 +10 20.62 +1.38
4 Hibernians 11 6 3 2 21 13 7 +6 15.78 +5.22
5 Mosta 11 5 1 5 16 15 16 -1 12.80 +3.20
6 Hamrun Spartans 11 4 2 5 14 19 15 +4 23.54 -9.54
7 Gzira United 11 4 2 5 14 15 15 0 16.22 -2.22
8 Melita 11 3 3 5 12 16 19 -3 8.61 +3.39
9 Marsaxlokk 11 3 3 5 12 13 16 -3 15.09 -3.09
10 Balzan 11 2 3 6 9 11 19 -8 12.68 -3.68
11 Naxxar Lions 11 1 4 6 7 7 21 -14 11.33 -4.33
12 St. Patrick 11 1 1 9 4 12 27 -15 6.58 -2.58
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Floriana 16 10 5 1 35 27 10 +17 18.19 +16.81
2 Birkirkara 16 10 2 4 32 22 14 +8 15.22 +16.78
3 Sliema Wanderers 16 8 6 2 30 23 10 +13 15.88 +14.12
4 Hibernians 16 8 3 5 27 19 17 +2 11.61 +15.39
5 Hamrun Spartans 16 7 3 6 24 28 19 +9 13.65 +10.35
6 Mosta 16 6 1 9 19 20 26 -6 8.36 +10.64
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Gzira United 16 6 4 6 22 20 20 0 32.24 -10.24
2 Marsaxlokk 16 5 6 5 21 21 21 0 30.93 -9.93
3 Melita 16 5 3 8 18 20 26 -6 24.66 -6.66
4 St. Patrick 16 4 2 10 14 21 32 -11 11.79 +2.21
5 Balzan 16 3 3 10 12 16 27 -11 21.78 -9.78
6 Naxxar Lions 16 2 6 8 12 13 28 -15 19.58 -7.58

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Floriana 35 18.19 +16.81
2 Birkirkara 32 15.22 +16.78
3 Hibernians 27 11.61 +15.39
4 Sliema Wanderers 30 15.88 +14.12
5 Mosta 19 8.36 +10.64

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Gzira United 22 32.24 -10.24
2 Marsaxlokk 21 30.93 -9.93
3 Balzan 12 21.78 -9.78
4 Naxxar Lions 12 19.58 -7.58
5 Melita 18 24.66 -6.66

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Birkirkara 9 Aug 23 – Nov 2 1 in 478
2 St. Patrick 3 Dec 1 – Dec 14 1 in 68
3 Mosta 3 Oct 19 – Nov 2 1 in 16
4 Hibernians 2 Aug 17 – Aug 25 1 in 11
5 Melita 1 Aug 24 – Aug 24 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Marsaxlokk 5 Aug 18 – Sep 23 1 in 486
2 Hamrun Spartans 4 Oct 2 – Nov 2 1 in 477
3 Balzan 4 Nov 24 – Dec 15 1 in 40
4 St. Patrick 7 Sep 28 – Nov 24 1 in 33
5 Mosta 3 Aug 16 – Aug 29 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Marsaxlokk 11 Sep 28 – Dec 22 1 in 99
2 Floriana 13 Aug 17 – Nov 30 1 in 27
3 Birkirkara 10 Aug 16 – Nov 2 1 in 21
4 St. Patrick 4 Dec 1 – Dec 22 1 in 20
5 Melita 3 Sep 29 – Oct 20 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hamrun Spartans 4 Oct 2 – Nov 2 1 in 22
2 Marsaxlokk 5 Aug 18 – Sep 23 1 in 20
3 Balzan 8 Oct 20 – Dec 15 1 in 20
4 Naxxar Lions 9 Aug 29 – Nov 7 1 in 15
5 Sliema Wanderers 3 Sep 21 – Oct 3 1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Floriana 1589 35 +39 12 9.5 +2.5
Birkirkara 1384 32 -93 4 7.1 -3.1
Sliema Wanderers 1516 30 +21 8 8.3 -0.3
Hibernians 1363 27 -30 6 5.5 +0.5
Hamrun Spartans 1539 24 +98 10 7.4 +2.6
Gzira United 1237 22 -57 8 9.4 -1.4
Marsaxlokk 1334 21 +16 9 9.8 -0.8
Mosta 1263 19 -35 3 3.7 -0.7
Melita 1155 18 -7 6 5.1 +0.9
St. Patrick 1165 14 +153 10 4.4 +5.6
Naxxar Lions 1103 12 -49 5 6.7 -1.7
Balzan 1100 12 -56 3 6.0 -3.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BAL BIR FLO GU HS HIB MAR MEL MOS NL SW SP
Balzan —
0-1-0
1.24
0-0-1
0.49
1-0-1
1.56
0-1-0
0.45
0-0-1
0.65
0-0-2
2.21
0-0-2
3.43
0-1-0
0.83
2-0-0
2.45
0-0-1
0.83
0-0-2
4.09
Birkirkara
0-1-0
1.52
 —
0-0-2
2.18
1-0-0
2.06
1-0-1
2.77
1-0-1
3.27
1-0-0
1.35
1-0-0
2.28
2-0-0
3.88
1-0-0
2.33
1-1-0
2.45
1-0-0
2.17
Floriana
1-0-0
2.29
2-0-0
3.35
 —
1-0-0
1.78
0-1-1
2.45
1-1-0
4.03
0-1-0
2.11
0-1-0
2.35
2-0-0
4.31
1-0-0
2.12
1-1-0
3.05
1-0-0
2.38
Gzira United
1-0-1
3.97
0-0-1
0.71
0-0-1
0.98
 —
0-0-1
0.94
0-0-1
1.73
1-1-0
2.31
1-0-1
4.26
1-0-0
1.76
0-2-0
3.60
0-1-0
0.94
2-0-0
4.39
Hamrun Spartans
0-1-0
2.34
1-0-1
2.75
1-1-0
3.07
1-0-0
1.82
 —
1-0-1
3.86
0-0-1
2.00
1-0-0
2.51
0-0-2
4.70
1-0-0
2.36
0-1-1
2.80
1-0-0
2.56
Hibernians
1-0-0
2.12
1-0-1
2.25
0-1-1
1.50
1-0-0
1.03
1-0-1
1.67
 —
0-1-0
1.70
1-0-0
2.05
1-0-1
3.68
1-0-0
1.31
0-1-1
1.90
1-0-0
2.02
Marsaxlokk
2-0-0
3.31
0-0-1
1.41
0-1-0
0.66
0-1-1
3.21
1-0-0
0.76
0-1-0
1.06
 —
1-0-1
4.41
0-0-1
1.57
0-2-0
3.94
0-0-1
0.77
1-1-0
3.92
Melita
2-0-0
2.09
0-0-1
0.50
0-1-0
0.43
1-0-1
1.28
0-0-1
0.30
0-0-1
0.72
1-0-1
1.14
 —
0-0-1
0.86
0-1-1
2.52
0-1-0
0.41
1-0-1
2.96
Mosta
0-1-0
1.93
0-0-2
1.64
0-0-2
1.23
0-0-1
1.00
2-0-0
0.88
1-0-1
1.85
1-0-0
1.19
1-0-0
1.91
 —
0-0-1
1.32
0-0-2
1.53
1-0-0
2.05
Naxxar Lions
0-0-2
3.07
0-0-1
0.45
0-0-1
0.65
0-2-0
1.92
0-0-1
0.43
0-0-1
1.45
0-2-0
1.59
1-1-0
3.00
1-0-0
1.43
 —
0-0-1
0.50
0-1-1
3.74
Sliema Wanderers
1-0-0
1.93
0-1-1
3.07
0-1-1
2.46
0-1-0
1.82
1-1-0
2.72
1-1-0
3.62
1-0-0
1.99
0-1-0
2.39
2-0-0
4.00
1-0-0
2.28
 —
1-0-0
2.35
St. Patrick
2-0-0
1.44
0-0-1
0.60
0-0-1
0.41
0-0-2
1.16
0-0-1
0.26
0-0-1
0.74
0-1-1
1.61
1-0-1
2.55
0-0-1
0.72
1-1-0
1.79
0-0-1
0.44
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.50 +13.2
Allowed 0.90 -10.2
Differential 0.91 +7.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.21%8.33%9.90%3.65%—0.52%27.60%
18.33%10.42%8.85%4.17%——31.77%
29.90%8.85%4.17%2.08%1.04%—26.04%
33.65%4.17%2.08%3.12%——13.02%
4——1.04%———1.04%
5+0.52%—————0.52%
Total27.60%31.77%26.04%13.02%1.04%0.52%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.30 1.30 +0.00
SD 1.09 1.09 1.62
CV 0.84 0.84 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 96

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%18.75%6.25%——37.50%
1—6.25%25.00%———31.25%
26.25%12.50%6.25%———25.00%
3———6.25%——6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total6.25%31.25%50.00%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.69 -0.69
SD 0.97 0.79 1.30
CV 0.97 0.47 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%12.50%———18.75%
131.25%6.25%—6.25%——43.75%
218.75%—————18.75%
36.25%—6.25%6.25%——18.75%
4———————
5+———————
Total56.25%12.50%18.75%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 0.88 +0.50
SD 1.02 1.15 1.55
CV 0.75 1.31 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%—————6.25%
118.75%18.75%6.25%———43.75%
218.75%6.25%————25.00%
312.50%6.25%—6.25%——25.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total56.25%31.25%6.25%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.69 0.62 +1.06
SD 0.95 0.89 1.18
CV 0.56 1.42 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%12.50%———25.00%
16.25%12.50%18.75%———37.50%
26.25%12.50%6.25%———25.00%
3—6.25%6.25%———12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.75%37.50%43.75%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.25 +0.00
SD 1.00 0.77 1.26
CV 0.80 0.62 —
Max 3 2 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%6.25%———18.75%
1—18.75%6.25%———25.00%
26.25%18.75%—12.50%——37.50%
36.25%6.25%————12.50%
4———————
5+6.25%—————6.25%
Total18.75%56.25%12.50%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.19 +0.56
SD 1.48 0.91 2.00
CV 0.85 0.77 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%12.50%6.25%——31.25%
16.25%12.50%—6.25%——25.00%
225.00%12.50%————37.50%
3——6.25%———6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total37.50%31.25%18.75%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.06 +0.12
SD 0.98 1.06 1.67
CV 0.83 1.00 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%12.50%6.25%———31.25%
1—18.75%6.25%———25.00%
2—12.50%6.25%—6.25%—25.00%
3—12.50%6.25%———18.75%
4———————
5+———————
Total12.50%56.25%25.00%—6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.31 +0.00
SD 1.14 0.95 1.21
CV 0.87 0.72 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%6.25%12.50%——31.25%
16.25%—12.50%6.25%——25.00%
212.50%6.25%6.25%6.25%——31.25%
3—6.25%—6.25%——12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%18.75%25.00%31.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.62 -0.38
SD 1.06 1.20 1.67
CV 0.85 0.74 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%25.00%———37.50%
112.50%—6.25%6.25%——25.00%
2—12.50%6.25%6.25%——25.00%
3———————
4——12.50%———12.50%
5+———————
Total12.50%25.00%50.00%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.62 -0.38
SD 1.34 0.89 1.50
CV 1.07 0.54 —
Max 4 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%6.25%12.50%12.50%—6.25%50.00%
1—18.75%12.50%———31.25%
2—6.25%————6.25%
36.25%——6.25%——12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.75%31.25%25.00%18.75%—6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.81 1.75 -0.94
SD 1.05 1.53 2.02
CV 1.29 0.87 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%12.50%————25.00%
112.50%12.50%————25.00%
218.75%—12.50%———31.25%
36.25%12.50%————18.75%
4———————
5+———————
Total50.00%37.50%12.50%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 0.62 +0.81
SD 1.09 0.72 1.22
CV 0.76 1.15 —
Max 3 2 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%6.25%6.25%——18.75%
16.25%—12.50%25.00%——43.75%
26.25%6.25%6.25%—6.25%—25.00%
36.25%——6.25%——12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.75%12.50%25.00%37.50%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 2.00 -0.69
SD 0.95 1.26 1.70
CV 0.72 0.63 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Floriana 1589 35 20.88 +14.12 78.0% 12 15 18 20 23 27 29
Hamrun Spartans 1539 24 23.54 +0.46 0.0% 15 16 21 23 27 29 31
Sliema Wanderers 1516 30 20.62 +9.38 64.0% 11 14 18 21 24 27 31
Birkirkara 1384 32 18.72 +13.28 100.0% 8 12 16 19 22 25 28
Hibernians 1363 27 15.78 +11.22 94.0% 6 9 13 16 18 22 26
Marsaxlokk 1334 21 15.09 +5.91 21.0% 6 8 13 15 18 21 26
Mosta 1263 19 12.80 +6.20 83.0% 5 8 10 12 14 19 24
Gzira United 1237 22 16.22 +5.78 32.0% 6 10 13 16 19 22 26
St. Patrick 1165 14 6.58 +7.42 26.0% 1 2 4 6 9 12 14
Melita 1155 18 8.61 +9.39 87.0% 1 3 7 8 10 13 16
Naxxar Lions 1103 12 11.33 +0.67 19.0% 1 4 9 11 14 17 24
Balzan 1100 12 12.68 -0.68 21.0% 2 7 10 12 15 20 22

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-2.08%
Slight Edge
37.50%22.92%39.58%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -7.24 Elo pts.
308 Elo
0.003 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.17 goals
Neutral
-2-0.02+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.5
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
20%
Floriana, 3rd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.19/gm
Tight Race
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.05 * Some Luck: 3.05 to 4.57 * Lucky: 4.57 to 6.1 * Wild Swing: 6.1 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.32 * Close: 1.32 to 1.98 * Off: 1.98 to 2.64 * Way Off: 2.64 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.88 points
Lucky
03.8110
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.83
Close
01.654
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
100.00%
Birkirkara
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
0.00%
Hamrun Spartans
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Balanced
00.20.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 166.10
1.44
Coin-Flip Parity
0.951.6522.253
Interquartile Edge
84%
Wide Edge
50%72.5%79%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
96%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
61%
Frequent
0%64%100%
Blowouts
Expected
8%
Rare
0%12%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.46
Slight Separation
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.57
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.58
Some Carryover
00.570.741
Upset Rate
Expected
30%
Very Upset-Prone
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Very Shaky
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.45
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.65
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.159
Well Within Noise
00.1650.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Floriana20.00%21.00%20.00%21.00%7.00%6.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%———
Birkirkara10.00%15.00%17.00%15.00%16.00%12.00%5.00%3.00%4.00%2.00%—1.00%
Sliema Wanderers22.00%22.00%16.00%17.00%9.00%6.00%5.00%—3.00%———
Hibernians2.00%5.00%10.00%9.00%15.00%21.00%13.00%5.00%13.00%5.00%—2.00%
Hamrun Spartans43.00%23.00%15.00%9.00%5.00%1.00%3.00%1.00%————
Mosta—2.00%5.00%1.00%6.00%7.00%13.00%18.00%25.00%13.00%8.00%2.00%
Gzira United2.00%7.00%8.00%13.00%18.00%11.00%17.00%7.00%10.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%
Marsaxlokk1.00%3.00%6.00%5.00%15.00%16.00%18.00%20.00%6.00%5.00%5.00%—
Melita—————3.00%3.00%8.00%12.00%27.00%27.00%20.00%
St. Patrick——————1.00%2.00%4.00%11.00%24.00%58.00%
Balzan—1.00%3.00%6.00%4.00%12.00%10.00%22.00%11.00%13.00%16.00%2.00%
Naxxar Lions—1.00%—4.00%5.00%5.00%9.00%13.00%11.00%20.00%18.00%14.00%
Team123456789101112
Floriana37.95%24.59%16.53%10.32%7.05%3.56%——————
Birkirkara21.31%21.48%18.86%16.96%12.93%8.46%——————
Sliema Wanderers21.71%22.85%20.32%16.58%11.59%6.95%——————
Hibernians6.57%10.86%16.03%20.90%24.77%20.87%——————
Hamrun Spartans10.49%15.54%20.07%21.40%19.16%13.34%——————
Mosta1.97%4.68%8.19%13.84%24.50%46.82%——————
Gzira United——————51.14%29.13%12.44%5.54%1.62%0.13%
Marsaxlokk——————36.06%36.61%17.07%7.06%2.84%0.36%
Melita——————8.39%17.82%31.21%24.99%15.05%2.54%
St. Patrick——————0.03%0.35%1.68%5.11%16.57%76.26%
Balzan——————2.97%10.37%22.41%29.98%27.07%7.20%
Naxxar Lions——————1.41%5.72%15.19%27.32%36.85%13.51%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Relegated
Birkirkara 100% —
Floriana 100% —
Hamrun Spartans 100% —
Sliema Wanderers 100% —
Hibernians 98.00% 2.00%
Marsaxlokk 98.00% 2.00%
Gzira United 94.00% 6.00%
Mosta 91.00% 9.00%
Balzan 78.00% 22.00%
Melita 63.00% 37.00%
Naxxar Lions 62.00% 38.00%
St. Patrick 16.00% 84.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Relegated
Birkirkara 100% —
Floriana 100% —
Hamrun Spartans 100% —
Hibernians 100% —
Mosta 100% —
Sliema Wanderers 100% —
Gzira United 98.25% 1.75%
Marsaxlokk 96.80% 3.20%
Melita 82.41% 17.59%
Balzan 65.73% 34.27%
Naxxar Lions 49.64% 50.36%
St. Patrick 7.17% 92.83%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2024-08-16 Birkirkara D 3-364.6 1284 1317 33.20% 24.28% 42.52%-0.13 +0.8 1
2024-08-16 @ Balzan D 3-364.6 1317 1284 42.52% 24.28% 33.20%+0.13 -0.8 1
2024-08-16 Mosta W 2-032.9 1404 1267 55.21% 23.80% 20.99%+0.42 +29.2 3
2024-08-16 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-232.9 1267 1404 20.99% 23.80% 55.21%-0.42 -29.2 0
2024-08-17 Hibernians L 1-247.9 1275 1258 40.28% 24.30% 35.41%+0.03 -24.5 0
2024-08-17 @ Naxxar Lions W 2-147.9 1258 1275 35.41% 24.30% 40.28%-0.03 +24.5 3
2024-08-17 Melita D 3-365.1 1431 1082 71.37% 21.24% 7.39%+1.11 -6.1 1
2024-08-17 @ Floriana D 3-365.1 1082 1431 7.39% 21.24% 71.37%-1.11 +6.1 1
2024-08-18 Gzira United L 0-145.8 1401 1340 46.24% 24.21% 29.55%+0.18 -29.1 0
2024-08-18 @ Marsaxlokk W 1-045.8 1340 1401 29.55% 24.21% 46.24%-0.18 +29.1 3
2024-08-18 St. Patrick W 3-131.9 1612 1076 79.30% 17.83% 2.87%+1.72 +3.5 3
2024-08-18 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-331.9 1076 1612 2.87% 17.83% 79.30%-1.72 -3.5 0
2024-08-23 Mosta W 2-146.5 1250 1238 39.69% 24.31% 36.01%+0.02 +22.5 3
2024-08-23 @ Naxxar Lions L 1-246.5 1238 1250 36.01% 24.31% 39.69%-0.02 -22.5 0
2024-08-23 St. Patrick W 1-032.9 1316 1072 64.78% 22.74% 12.48%+0.77 +9.8 4
2024-08-23 @ Birkirkara L 0-132.9 1072 1316 12.48% 22.74% 64.78%-0.77 -9.8 0
2024-08-24 Floriana D 1-165.5 1616 1425 60.43% 23.33% 16.24%+0.60 -6.4 4
2024-08-24 @ Hamrun Spartans D 1-165.5 1425 1616 16.24% 23.33% 60.43%-0.60 +6.4 2
2024-08-24 Melita L 1-255.3 1372 1088 67.58% 22.21% 10.21%+0.90 -39.1 0
2024-08-24 @ Marsaxlokk W 2-155.3 1088 1372 10.21% 22.21% 67.58%-0.90 +39.1 4
2024-08-25 Balzan W 2-033.2 1433 1285 56.37% 23.71% 19.91%+0.46 +27.9 6
2024-08-25 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-233.2 1285 1433 19.91% 23.71% 56.37%-0.46 -27.9 1
2024-08-25 Gzira United W 2-041.4 1282 1369 26.40% 24.10% 49.49%-0.31 +58.2 6
2024-08-25 @ Hibernians L 0-241.4 1369 1282 49.49% 24.10% 26.40%+0.31 -58.2 3
2024-08-28 Floriana L 0-324.6 1062 1431 6.69% 20.92% 72.39%-1.22 -14.5 0
2024-08-28 @ St. Patrick W 3-024.6 1431 1062 72.39% 20.92% 6.69%+1.22 +14.5 5
2024-08-28 Melita W 2-137.2 1609 1127 77.35% 18.88% 3.77%+1.54 +2.7 7
2024-08-28 @ Hamrun Spartans L 1-237.2 1127 1609 3.77% 18.88% 77.35%-1.54 -2.7 4
2024-08-29 Birkirkara L 0-238.3 1333 1326 38.85% 24.31% 36.84%+0.00 -47.7 0
2024-08-29 @ Marsaxlokk W 2-038.3 1326 1333 36.84% 24.31% 38.85%+0.00 +47.7 7
2024-08-29 Mosta W 2-033.3 1311 1215 50.59% 24.06% 25.35%+0.29 +34.1 6
2024-08-29 @ Gzira United L 0-233.3 1215 1311 25.35% 24.06% 50.59%-0.29 -34.1 0
2024-08-29 Naxxar Lions W 2-037.9 1257 1273 35.55% 24.30% 40.15%-0.08 +48.9 4
2024-08-29 @ Balzan L 0-237.9 1273 1257 40.15% 24.30% 35.55%+0.08 -48.9 3
2024-08-29 Sliema Wanderers D 0-052.8 1341 1461 22.70% 23.92% 53.39%-0.41 +4.8 7
2024-08-29 @ Hibernians D 0-052.8 1461 1341 53.39% 23.92% 22.70%+0.41 -4.8 7
2024-09-14 Birkirkara L 0-237.6 1345 1374 33.84% 24.29% 41.87%-0.12 -42.9 7
2024-09-14 @ Hibernians W 2-037.6 1374 1345 41.87% 24.29% 33.84%+0.12 +42.9 10
2024-09-14 Gzira United L 2-344.7 1124 1345 14.00% 23.01% 62.99%-0.74 -9.7 4
2024-09-14 @ Melita W 3-244.7 1345 1124 62.99% 23.01% 14.00%+0.74 +9.7 9
2024-09-15 Hamrun Spartans W 1-054.1 1181 1612 4.89% 19.83% 75.28%-1.42 +45.8 3
2024-09-15 @ Mosta L 0-154.1 1612 1181 75.28% 19.83% 4.89%+1.42 -45.8 7
2024-09-15 Sliema Wanderers L 0-137.1 1286 1456 17.90% 23.53% 58.57%-0.58 -13.5 0
2024-09-15 @ Marsaxlokk W 1-037.1 1456 1286 58.57% 23.53% 17.90%+0.58 +13.5 10
2024-09-16 Floriana L 0-230.6 1224 1446 13.97% 23.01% 63.02%-0.74 -20.4 3
2024-09-16 @ Naxxar Lions W 2-030.6 1446 1224 63.02% 23.01% 13.97%+0.74 +20.4 8
2024-09-16 St. Patrick L 0-244.6 1306 1048 65.76% 22.57% 11.67%+0.81 -76.2 4
2024-09-16 @ Balzan W 2-044.6 1048 1306 11.67% 22.57% 65.76%-0.81 +76.2 3
2024-09-21 Hamrun Spartans D 1-158.2 1229 1566 7.86% 21.44% 70.70%-1.12 +9.6 5
2024-09-21 @ Balzan D 1-158.2 1566 1229 70.70% 21.44% 7.86%+1.12 -9.6 8
2024-09-21 Sliema Wanderers D 2-264.1 1355 1470 23.30% 23.95% 52.75%-0.40 +3.0 10
2024-09-21 @ Gzira United D 2-264.1 1470 1355 52.75% 23.95% 23.30%+0.40 -3.0 11
2024-09-22 Hibernians D 1-157.0 1466 1302 57.88% 23.59% 18.53%+0.51 -5.6 9
2024-09-22 @ Floriana D 1-157.0 1302 1466 18.53% 23.59% 57.88%-0.51 +5.6 8
2024-09-22 Naxxar Lions D 3-363.8 1124 1204 27.28% 24.14% 48.58%-0.28 +1.8 4
2024-09-22 @ St. Patrick D 3-363.8 1204 1124 48.58% 24.14% 27.28%+0.28 -1.8 4
2024-09-23 Birkirkara L 0-325.9 1114 1417 9.34% 21.96% 68.70%-1.01 -20.3 4
2024-09-23 @ Melita W 3-025.9 1417 1114 68.70% 21.96% 9.34%+1.01 +20.3 13
2024-09-23 Mosta L 2-448.8 1272 1227 44.15% 24.25% 31.59%+0.12 -40.9 0
2024-09-23 @ Marsaxlokk W 4-248.8 1227 1272 31.59% 24.25% 44.15%-0.12 +40.9 6
2024-09-27 Gzira United W 2-146.7 1460 1358 51.33% 24.02% 24.65%+0.31 +16.7 12
2024-09-27 @ Floriana L 1-246.7 1358 1460 24.65% 24.02% 51.33%-0.31 -16.7 10
2024-09-27 Hamrun Spartans L 0-629.5 1202 1557 7.18% 21.15% 71.67%-1.18 -29.8 4
2024-09-27 @ Naxxar Lions W 6-029.5 1557 1202 71.67% 21.15% 7.18%+1.18 +29.8 11
2024-09-28 Balzan W 2-147.3 1231 1239 36.70% 24.31% 38.99%-0.05 +23.9 3
2024-09-28 @ Marsaxlokk L 1-247.3 1239 1231 38.99% 24.31% 36.70%+0.05 -23.9 5
2024-09-28 Hibernians L 1-240.4 1126 1308 16.94% 23.42% 59.64%-0.62 -12.1 4
2024-09-28 @ St. Patrick W 2-140.4 1308 1126 59.64% 23.42% 16.94%+0.62 +12.1 11
2024-09-29 Birkirkara L 0-136.6 1268 1437 18.02% 23.54% 58.45%-0.57 -13.6 6
2024-09-29 @ Mosta W 1-036.6 1437 1268 58.45% 23.54% 18.02%+0.57 +13.6 16
2024-09-29 Melita D 2-261.5 1467 1094 72.58% 20.86% 6.56%+1.19 -7.5 12
2024-09-29 @ Sliema Wanderers D 2-261.5 1094 1467 6.56% 20.86% 72.58%-1.19 +7.5 5
2024-10-02 Hibernians L 0-251.2 1587 1320 66.35% 22.46% 11.19%+0.84 -76.9 11
2024-10-02 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-051.2 1320 1587 11.19% 22.46% 66.35%-0.84 +76.9 14
2024-10-02 Marsaxlokk L 1-337.5 1114 1255 20.59% 23.77% 55.64%-0.48 -24.9 4
2024-10-02 @ St. Patrick W 3-137.5 1255 1114 55.64% 23.77% 20.59%+0.48 +24.9 6
2024-10-03 Floriana L 0-231.4 1254 1477 13.87% 22.99% 63.14%-0.75 -20.3 6
2024-10-03 @ Mosta W 2-031.4 1477 1254 63.14% 22.99% 13.87%+0.75 +20.3 15
2024-10-03 Gzira United W 2-152.0 1215 1341 22.10% 23.88% 54.02%-0.43 +31.5 8
2024-10-03 @ Balzan L 1-252.0 1341 1215 54.02% 23.88% 22.10%+0.43 -31.5 10
2024-10-03 Melita D 0-049.1 1172 1102 47.42% 24.18% 28.40%+0.21 -2.9 5
2024-10-03 @ Naxxar Lions D 0-049.1 1102 1172 28.40% 24.18% 47.42%-0.21 +2.9 6
2024-10-03 Sliema Wanderers W 1-047.9 1451 1459 36.62% 24.31% 39.07%-0.05 +25.4 19
2024-10-03 @ Birkirkara L 0-147.9 1459 1451 39.07% 24.31% 36.62%+0.05 -25.4 12
2024-10-19 Hamrun Spartans W 3-262.7 1476 1510 33.16% 24.28% 42.56%-0.13 +24.3 22
2024-10-19 @ Birkirkara L 2-362.7 1510 1476 42.56% 24.28% 33.16%+0.13 -24.3 11
2024-10-19 Hibernians W 1-047.7 1234 1397 18.55% 23.59% 57.86%-0.55 +35.7 9
2024-10-19 @ Mosta L 0-147.7 1397 1234 57.86% 23.59% 18.55%+0.55 -35.7 14
2024-10-20 Balzan W 2-041.9 1105 1247 20.52% 23.76% 55.72%-0.49 +64.9 9
2024-10-20 @ Melita L 0-241.9 1247 1105 55.72% 23.76% 20.52%+0.49 -64.9 8
2024-10-20 Gzira United D 1-154.3 1169 1310 20.66% 23.77% 55.57%-0.48 +4.9 6
2024-10-20 @ Naxxar Lions D 1-154.3 1310 1169 55.57% 23.77% 20.66%+0.48 -4.9 11
2024-10-20 St. Patrick W 2-027.1 1434 1089 71.15% 21.31% 7.54%+1.10 +11.3 15
2024-10-20 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-227.1 1089 1434 7.54% 21.31% 71.15%-1.10 -11.3 4
2024-10-21 Floriana D 1-157.3 1280 1497 14.26% 23.05% 62.69%-0.73 +7.1 7
2024-10-21 @ Marsaxlokk D 1-157.3 1497 1280 62.69% 23.05% 14.26%+0.73 -7.1 16
2024-10-25 Hamrun Spartans W 1-049.9 1445 1485 32.27% 24.27% 43.47%-0.15 +27.7 18
2024-10-25 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-149.9 1485 1445 43.47% 24.27% 32.27%+0.15 -27.6 11
2024-10-25 Melita W 2-030.4 1361 1169 60.52% 23.32% 16.15%+0.60 +23.3 17
2024-10-25 @ Hibernians L 0-230.4 1169 1361 16.15% 23.32% 60.52%-0.60 -23.3 9
2024-10-26 Balzan W 3-026.8 1490 1182 69.07% 21.87% 9.06%+0.98 +19.7 19
2024-10-26 @ Floriana L 0-326.8 1182 1490 9.06% 21.87% 69.07%-0.98 -19.7 8
2024-10-26 Birkirkara L 0-137.6 1305 1500 15.89% 23.29% 60.82%-0.66 -12.2 11
2024-10-26 @ Gzira United W 1-037.6 1500 1305 60.82% 23.29% 15.89%+0.66 +12.1 25
2024-10-27 Marsaxlokk D 0-049.4 1174 1287 23.50% 23.96% 52.53%-0.39 +4.5 7
2024-10-27 @ Naxxar Lions D 0-049.4 1287 1174 52.53% 23.96% 23.50%+0.39 -4.5 8
2024-10-27 St. Patrick W 4-239.8 1269 1078 60.51% 23.32% 16.17%+0.60 +18.0 12
2024-10-27 @ Mosta L 2-439.8 1078 1269 16.17% 23.32% 60.51%-0.60 -18.0 4
2024-11-01 Hibernians L 0-133.8 1162 1385 13.91% 23.00% 63.09%-0.75 -10.8 8
2024-11-01 @ Balzan W 1-033.8 1385 1162 63.09% 23.00% 13.91%+0.75 +10.8 20
2024-11-01 Sliema Wanderers D 0-058.3 1510 1473 43.06% 24.27% 32.67%+0.10 -1.5 20
2024-11-01 @ Floriana D 0-058.3 1473 1510 32.67% 24.27% 43.06%-0.10 +1.5 19
2024-11-02 Marsaxlokk L 2-360.4 1458 1282 58.99% 23.49% 17.53%+0.55 -32.5 11
2024-11-02 @ Hamrun Spartans W 3-260.4 1282 1458 17.53% 23.49% 58.99%-0.55 +32.5 11
2024-11-02 Mosta L 1-241.6 1146 1287 20.60% 23.77% 55.63%-0.48 -14.4 9
2024-11-02 @ Melita W 2-141.6 1287 1146 55.63% 23.77% 20.60%+0.48 +14.4 15
2024-11-02 Naxxar Lions W 1-032.8 1513 1179 70.54% 21.48% 7.98%+1.06 +6.3 28
2024-11-02 @ Birkirkara L 0-132.8 1179 1513 7.98% 21.48% 70.54%-1.06 -6.3 7
2024-11-02 St. Patrick W 3-135.0 1293 1059 63.94% 22.87% 13.19%+0.73 +16.8 14
2024-11-02 @ Gzira United L 1-335.0 1059 1293 13.19% 22.87% 63.94%-0.73 -16.8 4
2024-11-06 Balzan D 2-260.3 1302 1151 56.57% 23.70% 19.73%+0.47 -3.9 16
2024-11-06 @ Mosta D 2-260.3 1151 1302 19.73% 23.70% 56.57%-0.47 +3.9 9
2024-11-06 Melita L 1-339.1 1043 1132 26.17% 24.09% 49.74%-0.31 -30.3 4
2024-11-06 @ St. Patrick W 3-139.1 1132 1043 49.74% 24.09% 26.17%+0.31 +30.3 12
2024-11-07 Floriana L 1-354.1 1519 1508 39.33% 24.31% 36.36%+0.01 -41.7 28
2024-11-07 @ Birkirkara W 3-154.1 1508 1519 36.36% 24.31% 39.33%-0.01 +41.7 23
2024-11-07 Hamrun Spartans L 1-244.5 1310 1425 23.21% 23.95% 52.84%-0.40 -15.9 14
2024-11-07 @ Gzira United W 2-144.5 1425 1310 52.84% 23.95% 23.21%+0.40 +15.9 14
2024-11-07 Hibernians D 1-155.8 1315 1395 27.18% 24.13% 48.69%-0.28 +2.9 12
2024-11-07 @ Marsaxlokk D 1-155.8 1395 1315 48.69% 24.13% 27.18%+0.28 -2.9 21
2024-11-07 Sliema Wanderers L 0-326.6 1172 1474 9.36% 21.96% 68.67%-1.00 -20.3 7
2024-11-07 @ Naxxar Lions W 3-026.6 1474 1172 68.67% 21.96% 9.36%+1.00 +20.3 22

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2024-11-23 Hamrun Spartans L 0-245.1 1477 1441 42.91% 24.28% 32.81%+0.09 -51.6 0
2024-11-23 @ Birkirkara W 2-045.1 1441 1477 32.81% 24.28% 42.91%-0.09 +51.6 3
2024-11-23 Hibernians W 3-144.6 1495 1393 51.28% 24.03% 24.69%+0.31 +28.9 3
2024-11-23 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-344.6 1393 1495 24.69% 24.03% 51.28%-0.31 -28.9 0
2024-11-23 Mosta W 1-037.4 1550 1298 65.35% 22.64% 12.01%+0.80 +9.4 3
2024-11-23 @ Floriana L 0-137.4 1298 1550 12.01% 22.64% 65.35%-0.80 -9.4 0
2024-11-24 Balzan W 2-141.0 1318 1155 57.79% 23.60% 18.61%+0.50 +13.2 3
2024-11-24 @ Marsaxlokk L 1-241.0 1155 1318 18.61% 23.60% 57.79%-0.50 -13.2 0
2024-11-24 St. Patrick W 2-137.9 1294 1012 67.36% 22.26% 10.39%+0.89 +7.7 3
2024-11-24 @ Gzira United L 1-237.9 1012 1294 10.39% 22.26% 67.36%-0.89 -7.7 0
2024-11-25 Naxxar Lions L 0-335.1 1162 1152 39.30% 24.31% 36.40%+0.01 -69.9 0
2024-11-25 @ Melita W 3-035.1 1152 1162 36.40% 24.31% 39.30%-0.01 +69.9 3
2024-11-29 Hamrun Spartans D 1-164.4 1524 1493 42.19% 24.28% 33.52%+0.08 -1.1 4
2024-11-29 @ Sliema Wanderers D 1-164.4 1493 1524 33.52% 24.28% 42.19%-0.08 +1.1 4
2024-11-29 Mosta W 2-033.5 1426 1288 55.19% 23.80% 21.01%+0.42 +29.2 3
2024-11-29 @ Birkirkara L 0-233.5 1288 1426 21.01% 23.80% 55.19%-0.42 -29.2 0
2024-11-30 Hibernians W 2-036.9 1560 1364 60.86% 23.28% 15.85%+0.61 +22.9 6
2024-11-30 @ Floriana L 0-236.9 1364 1560 15.85% 23.28% 60.86%-0.61 -22.9 0
2024-11-30 Naxxar Lions D 1-154.3 1301 1222 48.58% 24.14% 27.29%+0.23 -2.9 4
2024-11-30 @ Gzira United D 1-154.3 1222 1301 27.29% 24.14% 48.58%-0.23 +2.9 4
2024-12-01 Marsaxlokk L 1-334.9 1092 1331 12.83% 22.81% 64.36%-0.80 -16.3 0
2024-12-01 @ Melita W 3-134.9 1331 1092 64.36% 22.81% 12.83%+0.80 +16.4 6
2024-12-01 St. Patrick L 1-251.7 1142 1005 55.22% 23.80% 20.98%+0.42 -32.2 0
2024-12-01 @ Balzan W 2-151.7 1005 1142 20.98% 23.80% 55.22%-0.42 +32.2 3
2024-12-07 Mosta W 3-249.5 1341 1259 48.81% 24.13% 27.06%+0.24 +17.1 3
2024-12-07 @ Hibernians L 2-349.5 1259 1341 27.06% 24.13% 48.81%-0.24 -17.1 0
2024-12-07 Sliema Wanderers D 1-162.9 1455 1522 28.74% 24.19% 47.07%-0.24 +2.5 4
2024-12-07 @ Birkirkara D 1-162.9 1522 1455 47.07% 24.19% 28.74%+0.24 -2.5 5
2024-12-08 Balzan W 1-042.2 1076 1110 33.10% 24.28% 42.62%-0.13 +27.2 3
2024-12-08 @ Melita L 0-142.2 1110 1076 42.62% 24.28% 33.10%+0.13 -27.2 0
2024-12-08 Hamrun Spartans L 1-262.9 1582 1494 49.69% 24.10% 26.22%+0.26 -29.2 6
2024-12-08 @ Floriana W 2-162.9 1494 1582 26.22% 24.10% 49.69%-0.26 +29.2 7
2024-12-08 Marsaxlokk D 0-050.3 1299 1347 31.13% 24.25% 44.63%-0.18 +2.0 5
2024-12-08 @ Gzira United D 0-050.3 1347 1299 44.63% 24.25% 31.13%+0.18 -2.0 7
2024-12-08 St. Patrick L 0-341.0 1225 1037 60.15% 23.36% 16.48%+0.59 -101.4 4
2024-12-08 @ Naxxar Lions W 3-041.0 1037 1225 16.48% 23.36% 60.15%-0.59 +101.4 6
2024-12-14 Hibernians L 0-244.4 1457 1358 50.97% 24.04% 24.99%+0.30 -59.8 4
2024-12-14 @ Birkirkara W 2-044.4 1358 1457 24.99% 24.04% 50.97%-0.30 +59.8 6
2024-12-14 St. Patrick L 0-139.4 1103 1138 32.94% 24.28% 42.78%-0.14 -22.3 3
2024-12-14 @ Melita W 1-039.4 1138 1103 42.78% 24.28% 32.94%+0.14 +22.3 9
2024-12-15 Balzan W 2-139.4 1301 1083 62.71% 23.05% 14.24%+0.68 +10.4 8
2024-12-15 @ Gzira United L 1-239.4 1083 1301 14.24% 23.05% 62.71%-0.68 -10.4 0
2024-12-15 Naxxar Lions D 1-154.5 1345 1123 63.06% 23.00% 13.94%+0.70 -7.2 8
2024-12-15 @ Marsaxlokk D 1-154.5 1123 1345 13.94% 23.00% 63.06%-0.70 +7.2 5
2024-12-17 Mosta L 1-257.8 1523 1242 67.32% 22.26% 10.42%+0.89 -39.0 7
2024-12-17 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-157.8 1242 1523 10.42% 22.26% 67.32%-0.89 +39.0 3
2024-12-17 Sliema Wanderers W 1-052.0 1553 1520 42.53% 24.28% 33.19%+0.08 +22.4 9
2024-12-17 @ Floriana L 0-152.0 1520 1553 33.19% 24.28% 42.53%-0.08 -22.4 5
2024-12-21 Floriana L 0-143.3 1397 1576 17.28% 23.46% 59.26%-0.60 -13.1 4
2024-12-21 @ Birkirkara W 1-043.3 1576 1397 59.26% 23.46% 17.28%+0.60 +13.1 12
2024-12-21 Hamrun Spartans L 0-338.3 1418 1484 28.90% 24.19% 46.91%-0.24 -55.1 6
2024-12-21 @ Hibernians W 3-038.3 1484 1418 46.91% 24.19% 28.90%+0.24 +55.1 10
2024-12-21 Mosta W 3-138.4 1498 1281 62.58% 23.07% 14.35%+0.68 +18.1 8
2024-12-21 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-338.4 1281 1498 14.35% 23.07% 62.58%-0.68 -18.1 3
2024-12-22 Melita L 0-244.1 1311 1081 63.69% 22.91% 13.40%+0.72 -73.9 8
2024-12-22 @ Gzira United W 2-044.1 1081 1311 13.40% 22.91% 63.69%-0.72 +73.9 6
2024-12-22 Naxxar Lions W 2-149.1 1072 1131 29.92% 24.22% 45.86%-0.21 +27.3 3
2024-12-22 @ Balzan L 1-249.1 1131 1072 45.86% 24.22% 29.92%+0.21 -27.2 5
2024-12-22 St. Patrick D 2-260.5 1338 1161 59.22% 23.46% 17.32%+0.55 -4.5 9
2024-12-22 @ Marsaxlokk D 2-260.5 1161 1338 17.32% 23.46% 59.22%-0.55 +4.5 10

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2024-09-15 4.89% @ Mosta 1181 1 Hamrun Spartans 1612 0
2 2024-08-24 10.21% Melita 1088 2 @ Marsaxlokk 1372 1
3 2024-12-17 10.42% Mosta 1242 2 @ Hamrun Spartans 1523 1
4 2024-10-02 11.19% Hibernians 1320 2 @ Hamrun Spartans 1587 0
5 2024-09-16 11.67% St. Patrick 1048 2 @ Balzan 1306 0
6 2024-12-22 13.40% Melita 1081 2 @ Gzira United 1311 0
7 2024-12-08 16.48% St. Patrick 1037 3 @ Naxxar Lions 1225 0
8 2024-11-02 17.53% Marsaxlokk 1282 3 @ Hamrun Spartans 1458 2
9 2024-10-19 18.55% @ Mosta 1234 1 Hibernians 1397 0
10 2024-10-20 20.52% @ Melita 1105 2 Balzan 1247 0
11 2024-12-01 20.98% St. Patrick 1005 2 @ Balzan 1142 1
12 2024-10-03 22.10% @ Balzan 1215 2 Gzira United 1341 1
13 2024-12-14 24.99% Hibernians 1358 2 @ Birkirkara 1457 0
14 2024-12-08 26.22% Hamrun Spartans 1494 2 @ Floriana 1582 1
15 2024-08-25 26.40% @ Hibernians 1282 2 Gzira United 1369 0
16 2024-08-18 29.55% Gzira United 1340 1 @ Marsaxlokk 1401 0
17 2024-12-22 29.92% @ Balzan 1072 2 Naxxar Lions 1131 1
18 2024-09-23 31.59% Mosta 1227 4 @ Marsaxlokk 1272 2
19 2024-10-25 32.27% @ Sliema Wanderers 1445 1 Hamrun Spartans 1485 0
20 2024-11-23 32.81% Hamrun Spartans 1441 2 @ Birkirkara 1477 0
21 2024-12-08 33.10% @ Melita 1076 1 Balzan 1110 0
22 2024-10-19 33.16% @ Birkirkara 1476 3 Hamrun Spartans 1510 2
23 2024-08-17 35.41% Hibernians 1258 2 @ Naxxar Lions 1275 1
24 2024-08-29 35.55% @ Balzan 1257 2 Naxxar Lions 1273 0
25 2024-11-07 36.36% Floriana 1508 3 @ Birkirkara 1519 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-12-08 101.42 St. Patrick 3 1037 16.48% @ Naxxar Lions 0 1225 60.15% 23.36%
2 2024-10-02 76.91 Hibernians 2 1320 11.19% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1587 66.35% 22.46%
3 2024-09-16 76.24 St. Patrick 2 1048 11.67% @ Balzan 0 1306 65.76% 22.57%
4 2024-12-22 73.87 Melita 2 1081 13.40% @ Gzira United 0 1311 63.69% 22.91%
5 2024-11-25 69.89 Naxxar Lions 3 1152 36.40% @ Melita 0 1162 39.30% 24.31%
6 2024-10-20 64.89 @ Melita 2 1105 20.52% Balzan 0 1247 55.72% 23.76%
7 2024-12-14 59.78 Hibernians 2 1358 24.99% @ Birkirkara 0 1457 50.97% 24.04%
8 2024-08-25 58.23 @ Hibernians 2 1282 26.40% Gzira United 0 1369 49.49% 24.10%
9 2024-12-21 55.09 Hamrun Spartans 3 1484 46.91% @ Hibernians 0 1418 28.90% 24.19%
10 2024-11-23 51.60 Hamrun Spartans 2 1441 32.81% @ Birkirkara 0 1477 42.91% 24.28%
11 2024-08-29 48.93 @ Balzan 2 1257 35.55% Naxxar Lions 0 1273 40.15% 24.30%
12 2024-08-29 47.70 Birkirkara 2 1326 36.84% @ Marsaxlokk 0 1333 38.85% 24.31%
13 2024-09-15 45.76 @ Mosta 1 1181 4.89% Hamrun Spartans 0 1612 75.28% 19.83%
14 2024-09-14 42.93 Birkirkara 2 1374 41.87% @ Hibernians 0 1345 33.84% 24.29%
15 2024-11-07 41.70 Floriana 3 1508 36.36% @ Birkirkara 1 1519 39.33% 24.31%
16 2024-09-23 40.91 Mosta 4 1227 31.59% @ Marsaxlokk 2 1272 44.15% 24.25%
17 2024-08-24 39.15 Melita 2 1088 10.21% @ Marsaxlokk 1 1372 67.58% 22.21%
18 2024-12-17 39.01 Mosta 2 1242 10.42% @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1523 67.32% 22.26%
19 2024-10-19 35.67 @ Mosta 1 1234 18.55% Hibernians 0 1397 57.86% 23.59%
20 2024-08-29 34.14 @ Gzira United 2 1311 50.59% Mosta 0 1215 25.35% 24.06%
21 2024-11-02 32.50 Marsaxlokk 3 1282 17.53% @ Hamrun Spartans 2 1458 58.99% 23.49%
22 2024-12-01 32.17 St. Patrick 2 1005 20.98% @ Balzan 1 1142 55.22% 23.80%
23 2024-10-03 31.52 @ Balzan 2 1215 22.10% Gzira United 1 1341 54.02% 23.88%
24 2024-11-06 30.33 Melita 3 1132 49.74% @ St. Patrick 1 1043 26.17% 24.09%
25 2024-09-27 29.81 Hamrun Spartans 6 1557 71.67% @ Naxxar Lions 0 1202 7.18% 21.15%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-08-24 65.5 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1616 60.43% Floriana 1 1425 16.24% 23.33%
2 2024-08-17 65.1 @ Floriana 3 1431 71.37% Melita 3 1082 7.39% 21.24%
3 2024-08-16 64.6 @ Balzan 3 1284 33.20% Birkirkara 3 1317 42.52% 24.28%
4 2024-11-29 64.4 @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1524 42.19% Hamrun Spartans 1 1493 33.52% 24.28%
5 2024-09-21 64.1 @ Gzira United 2 1355 23.30% Sliema Wanderers 2 1470 52.75% 23.95%
6 2024-09-22 63.8 @ St. Patrick 3 1124 27.28% Naxxar Lions 3 1204 48.58% 24.14%
7 2024-12-07 62.9 @ Birkirkara 1 1455 28.74% Sliema Wanderers 1 1522 47.07% 24.19%
8 2024-12-08 62.9 Hamrun Spartans 2 1494 26.22% @ Floriana 1 1582 49.69% 24.10%
9 2024-10-19 62.7 @ Birkirkara 3 1476 33.16% Hamrun Spartans 2 1510 42.56% 24.28%
10 2024-09-29 61.5 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1467 72.58% Melita 2 1094 6.56% 20.86%
11 2024-12-22 60.5 @ Marsaxlokk 2 1338 59.22% St. Patrick 2 1161 17.32% 23.46%
12 2024-11-02 60.4 Marsaxlokk 3 1282 17.53% @ Hamrun Spartans 2 1458 58.99% 23.49%
13 2024-11-06 60.3 @ Mosta 2 1302 56.57% Balzan 2 1151 19.73% 23.70%
14 2024-11-01 58.3 @ Floriana 0 1510 43.06% Sliema Wanderers 0 1473 32.67% 24.27%
15 2024-09-21 58.2 @ Balzan 1 1229 7.86% Hamrun Spartans 1 1566 70.70% 21.44%
16 2024-12-17 57.8 Mosta 2 1242 10.42% @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1523 67.32% 22.26%
17 2024-10-21 57.3 @ Marsaxlokk 1 1280 14.26% Floriana 1 1497 62.69% 23.05%
18 2024-09-22 57.0 @ Floriana 1 1466 57.88% Hibernians 1 1302 18.53% 23.59%
19 2024-11-07 55.8 @ Marsaxlokk 1 1315 27.18% Hibernians 1 1395 48.69% 24.13%
20 2024-08-24 55.3 Melita 2 1088 10.21% @ Marsaxlokk 1 1372 67.58% 22.21%
21 2024-12-15 54.5 @ Marsaxlokk 1 1345 63.06% Naxxar Lions 1 1123 13.94% 23.00%
22 2024-10-20 54.3 @ Naxxar Lions 1 1169 20.66% Gzira United 1 1310 55.57% 23.77%
23 2024-11-30 54.3 @ Gzira United 1 1301 48.58% Naxxar Lions 1 1222 27.29% 24.14%
24 2024-09-15 54.1 @ Mosta 1 1181 4.89% Hamrun Spartans 0 1612 75.28% 19.83%
25 2024-11-07 54.1 Floriana 3 1508 36.36% @ Birkirkara 1 1519 39.33% 24.31%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-08-28 24.6 Floriana 3 1431 72.39% @ St. Patrick 0 1062 6.69% 20.92%
2 2024-09-23 25.9 Birkirkara 3 1417 68.70% @ Melita 0 1114 9.34% 21.96%
3 2024-11-07 26.6 Sliema Wanderers 3 1474 68.67% @ Naxxar Lions 0 1172 9.36% 21.96%
4 2024-10-26 26.8 @ Floriana 3 1490 69.07% Balzan 0 1182 9.06% 21.87%
5 2024-10-20 27.1 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1434 71.15% St. Patrick 0 1089 7.54% 21.31%
6 2024-09-27 29.5 Hamrun Spartans 6 1557 71.67% @ Naxxar Lions 0 1202 7.18% 21.15%
7 2024-10-25 30.4 @ Hibernians 2 1361 60.52% Melita 0 1169 16.15% 23.32%
8 2024-09-16 30.6 Floriana 2 1446 63.02% @ Naxxar Lions 0 1224 13.97% 23.01%
9 2024-10-03 31.4 Floriana 2 1477 63.14% @ Mosta 0 1254 13.87% 22.99%
10 2024-08-18 31.9 @ Hamrun Spartans 3 1612 79.30% St. Patrick 1 1076 2.87% 17.83%
11 2024-11-02 32.8 @ Birkirkara 1 1513 70.54% Naxxar Lions 0 1179 7.98% 21.48%
12 2024-08-16 32.9 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1404 55.21% Mosta 0 1267 20.99% 23.80%
13 2024-08-23 32.9 @ Birkirkara 1 1316 64.78% St. Patrick 0 1072 12.48% 22.74%
14 2024-08-25 33.2 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1433 56.37% Balzan 0 1285 19.91% 23.71%
15 2024-08-29 33.3 @ Gzira United 2 1311 50.59% Mosta 0 1215 25.35% 24.06%
16 2024-11-29 33.5 @ Birkirkara 2 1426 55.19% Mosta 0 1288 21.01% 23.80%
17 2024-11-01 33.8 Hibernians 1 1385 63.09% @ Balzan 0 1162 13.91% 23.00%
18 2024-12-01 34.9 Marsaxlokk 3 1331 64.36% @ Melita 1 1092 12.83% 22.81%
19 2024-11-02 35.0 @ Gzira United 3 1293 63.94% St. Patrick 1 1059 13.19% 22.87%
20 2024-11-25 35.1 Naxxar Lions 3 1152 36.40% @ Melita 0 1162 39.30% 24.31%
21 2024-09-29 36.6 Birkirkara 1 1437 58.45% @ Mosta 0 1268 18.02% 23.54%
22 2024-11-30 36.9 @ Floriana 2 1560 60.86% Hibernians 0 1364 15.85% 23.28%
23 2024-09-15 37.1 Sliema Wanderers 1 1456 58.57% @ Marsaxlokk 0 1286 17.90% 23.53%
24 2024-08-28 37.2 @ Hamrun Spartans 2 1609 77.35% Melita 1 1127 3.77% 18.88%
25 2024-11-23 37.4 @ Floriana 1 1550 65.35% Mosta 0 1298 12.01% 22.64%